Why Does Human Risk Spike at the Start of the Year?

January is often seen as a reset. New plans, fresh priorities, and a sense of starting clean.From a cybersecurity perspective, however, the start of the year is one of the most fragile periods for organisations.

Across industries and company sizes, we see the same pattern repeat every year: human-driven security incidents increase in January. Phishing success rates rise, social engineering becomes more effective, and small mistakes turn into real security issues.

This is not coincidence. It is the result of predictable organisational and behavioural changes that occur at the beginning of the year.

The January Effect: Why Risk Increases

At the start of the year, several factors align that collectively raise human risk.

1. New Projects and New Tools

January is when many initiatives finally kick off. New systems are introduced, pilots are launched, and teams begin working with tools they are not yet fully familiar with.

During this phase:

• Security habits are not established yet

• Processes are still evolving

• Mistakes are more likely, especially under time pressure

Attackers benefit from this learning curve. Unfamiliar workflows make it harder for employees to recognise what looks suspicious and what does not.

2. Role Changes and Access Creep

Promotions, internal moves, new hires, and temporary assignments are common at the start of the year. Unfortunately, access rights do not always keep up with these changes.

Typical January issues include:

• Users retaining access from previous roles

• Temporary permissions becoming permanent

• New access granted without full review

From an attacker’s perspective, these situations are ideal. A compromised account with excessive access significantly increases impact.

3. Reduced Awareness After the Holidays

The return from the holiday period often comes with:

• Lower focus

• High inbox volume

• A backlog of tasks

• Increased urgency

Under these conditions, phishing emails blend in more easily. Urgent requests, unexpected links, and unusual attachments feel normal rather than suspicious.

This is one of the reasons phishing campaigns are particularly effective in early January.

4. Familiar Themes, Higher Success

Attackers do not need new techniques. They reuse familiar themes that align perfectly with January workflows, such as:

• HR updates and policy changes

• Account reactivation notices

• Invoice corrections and payment follow-ups

• Access confirmations and password resets

When these messages arrive at the right moment, even experienced employees can make mistakes.

Why This Is a Recurring Pattern

Human risk spikes in January not because people are careless, but because the organisation itself is in transition.

Processes are changing. Responsibilities are shifting. Attention is divided.These conditions repeat every year, which is why the same types of incidents also repeat.

Understanding this pattern is the first step toward breaking it.

What Teams Can Do Early to Reduce Risk All Year

The good news is that early action in January has a long-lasting effect. Behaviour established at the start of the year often carries through the following months.

Focus on People, Not Just Technology

Tools and controls matter, but human behaviour determines whether they are used correctly.

Early-year actions that make a difference:

• Short, targeted security awareness refreshers

• Realistic phishing simulations aligned with current attack patterns

• Clear guidance on reporting suspicious activity

• Reinforcing verification steps for urgent requests

Test, Teach, and Measure

The most effective programmes combine testing and education.

For example:

• Simulated phishing emails that reflect real-world threats

• Short teaching videos explaining what to look for

• Simple quizzes to reinforce key lessons

• Certificates to recognise completion

• Clear metrics showing where weak points exist

This approach does not aim to blame users. It aims to build confidence, awareness, and consistency.

Use January Results as a Baseline

Early-year testing provides valuable insight:

• Which teams need more support

• Which attack types are most effective

• Where processes are unclear or fragile

These insights help prioritise improvements and reduce repeat mistakes throughout the year.

Want to Understand Your Human Risk Baseline?

If you are curious how these patterns apply to your organisation, a short baseline review can provide clarity.

A human risk baseline helps you:

• identify where phishing and social engineering are most likely to succeed

• understand which teams or workflows are most exposed

• validate whether awareness efforts align with real attacker behaviour

• prioritise improvements based on actual risk, not assumptions

This is not a sales call and not a full audit.It is a structured starting point to understand where you stand at the beginning of the year.

If you would like to request a human risk baseline or discuss your current awareness approach, get in touch with our team.

Request a human risk baseline